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Weekly Update: The New Year

Weekly Update: The New Year

January 05, 2026








Weekly Market Update
January 5, 2026
Outlook

We start the new year with a decent economic backdrop. The most recent reports on economic growth show the U.S. growing at a rate of 2.3% (most-recent-quarter GDP vs. a year ago). Real-time estimates from the Atlanta Fed estimate a current growth rate of 3.0%. Inflation seems to be grounded below 3.0%,1 and initial and continuing claims for unemployment insurance have been stable-to-trending lower.2

With an outsized proportion of wealth3, Baby Boomer spending may support continued consumer spending growth. Further, Artificial Intelligence continues to garner heavy investment from corporate America. Ultimately, these factors lead us to believe 2026 will continue to provide a healthy climate for corporate earnings growth - a key element to a healthy stock market.

Finally, we are in a climate where inflation is reasonable (but above its target) and economic growth remains solid. Despite this, a reasonable likelihood exists that the Fed will lower short-term rates leading us to believe longer-term bond yields may rise modestly in 2026 even as short-term rates ease. This environment—often referred to as yield-curve steepening—could present an opportunity for investors holding conservative, short-duration assets to potentially enhance income by selectively extending bond maturities.

. . .


Overall, the U.S. equity markets finished the year on a solid note. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed out 2025 up +20.4%, the broad benchmark S&P 500 advanced +16.4%, and the blue-chip Dow Jones climbed +13.0%.

Much of the performance was driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, progress on trade negotiations that offset tariff concerns, increased economic growth expectations, and solid corporate earnings that boosted market sentiment through periods of volatility and uncertainty.

For the upcoming week, the markets will likely be focused on geopolitical developments regarding the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and its effect on the oil industry. As of Monday morning, crude oil prices remain largely unchanged, while related energy stocks are trading modestly higher.

The economic calendar is largely filled this week, highlighting releases on manufacturing activity (ISM Manufacturing PMI) and services activity (ISM Services PMI), along with labor market updates throughout the week, including the JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Changes, and the widely followed Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday.

[1]  https://media.ycharts.com/charts/67deba54bbddbdce10a97534108570d2.png

[2]  https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5c3b0c570e0dce8eb81ebdda622b195.png

[3]  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boomers-sit-85-trillion-wealth-214703675.html

Upcoming Reports

Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: S&P Global Composite PMI

Wednesday: Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI, ADP Employment Change, JOLTS Job Openings

Thursday: Consumer Inflation Expectations, Initial and Continued Jobless Claims

Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations, Nonfarm Payrolls - Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate

Aviance Capital Partnersis a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor with advisors in Naples and Orlando. We provide professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisorsin Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

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