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Weekly Update: P/E and Inflation Impact

Weekly Update: P/E and Inflation Impact

August 18, 2025




Weekly Market Update
August 18, 2025
Outlook

Our preferred index to represent the broad stock market is the S&P 500. Trading at a price of 22.3 times forward earnings as of July 31, 2025, it is higher than the average for the past 30 years.1 A higher-than-average P/E implies investors expect the companies in the index to grow earnings at a faster-than-average pace; a seemingly reasonable expectation given the potential and continued growth of the largest stocks in the index. This narrative primarily involves massive spending tied to artificial intelligence in addition to the continued success of legacy sources of revenue for Magnificent 7 stocks. 

However, the overall success of the economy has the potential to impose its will on the markets. Currently, GDP growth remains solid while inflation seems to be more of a day-to-day source of concern. This past week showed us the producer prices rose sharply (+0.9%) over July.2 It is important to note that this is the cost of production that companies pay and not what consumers pay. Either way, this puts into question the nearly foregone conclusion that the Fed would lower rates since lower rates in the face of rising inflation would typically be considered the wrong thing to do. This is just one data point but certainly one that garnered a bit of attention last week.
   

. . .

U.S. equities closed the week out with solid gains, boosted by raised expectations for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve and progress towards de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. 

The markets closely watched last week’s incoming inflation data – CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index). The two reports showed mixed results. Headline CPI came in at 2.7%, less than initially feared, supported by a decline in gasoline prices. Whereas headline PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month, higher than the 0.2% expected. The reports showed that consumer prices came in less than expected, indicating inflation remains manageable, but service inflation remains sticky, and rising producer prices may suggest an uptick ahead. 

This data, combined with a not-so-robust July nonfarm payrolls (jobs) reading earlier this month, has led investors to increase their expectation of a Fed pivot. The market-implied odds of a September cut is now above 80%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.3  

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 22. Attention will be focused on future expectations and the path ahead for rates. 

As for developments between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on Friday. There has been no official agreement to resolve the war, but Trump described the meeting as “very productive.”4

For the week, the S&P 500 increased 0.9%, the blue-chip Dow advanced 1.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.8%. 

[1] https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/protected/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/

[2]https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

[3]FedWatch - CME Group

[4] 'No deal': Trump calls summit with Putin 'productive,' but doesn't announce Ukraine ceasefire

Upcoming Reports

Monday: N/A

Tuesday: Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes, FOMC Member Bostic Speaks, Fed Waller Speaks

Thursday: Manufacturing and Services PMI, Existing Home Sales, Fed's Balance Sheet

Friday: Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Jackson Hole Symposium

Market Performance Stats

   

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The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

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